The debate between Biden and Trump and the Democrats’ reaction to their leader’s weak performance have led to the belief that Trump is likely to win in November. In that case, the outcome of Ukraine’s war for independence and the de-occupation of its territories will not only depend on an eccentric populist, but will also be questionable. However, some see Trump’s victory as more of a plus for Ukraine than a minus.
Donald Trump’s most dangerous trait is his unpredictability. At the beginning of his first presidential term, Trump sent a fleet to the shores of North Korea, and then negotiated and shook hands with Kim Jong-un. Trump first began to take action against Chinese espionage and infiltration of the American economy and started a trade war with China. Trump bombed Syria with Tomahawks with the words “Get ready, Russia,” killing many Wagnerians. Moscow had to grit its teeth and claim that “they are not there.” It was under Trump that the United States provided Ukraine with the first Javelins, while Obama, according to Trump, sent Ukraine only “pillows,” i.e. non-lethal equipment. Trump emphasized that if he were the owner of the White House, Putin would not have dared to attack Ukraine. In his opinion, Putin did so because he saw Biden’s weakness and indecision.
While in opposition, Trump began to play on populist sentiments, criticizing the Biden administration for even doing what any American president, including himself, would have done. Trump’s scandalous statements about the US withdrawing from NATO if European countries do not start paying for the Alliance’s funding came as a shock, but at the same time, they forced EU leaders to take more care of their own defense without relying on the US alone. With a single threat, Trump forced Europeans to become stronger and more independent.
Trump’s populist statements about ending the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of winning the election have become a dangerous declaration of betrayal of Ukraine, if not just another election promise. Trump promises to tell Putin and Zelenskiy “enough is enough” and offers to make a deal. If Putin does not agree, Trump promises to give Ukraine more weapons than we have ever received, and if Zelenskyy does not agree, he promises to stop military and financial aid. Trump’s plan for “peace” does not involve the liberation of the occupied territories, but the freezing of the war on the existing front lines, and unfortunately, this is exactly what the Kremlin wants.
The key question for Ukraine is whether Trump will fulfill his campaign promises if he wins the election. Or is Trump’s rhetoric just cheap populism for the American plebs? As a representative of the American establishment, it would be unacceptable for Trump to surrender the US position in the international arena. The defeat of Ukraine is tantamount to the beginning of World War III, followed by China’s attack on Taiwan, a major war in the Middle East, and even on the American continent between Venezuela and Guyana. The Economist explicitly states that “Donald Trump is the greatest threat to the world in 2024”.
It can be assumed that a politician who was not afraid to show American muscle and took a hard line on China will refrain from an outright capitulatory decision for Ukraine. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes that Donald Trump’s victory will not weaken aid to Ukraine. The “greatest British friend of Ukraine” is convinced that there is a good chance that Trump will redouble his efforts and give Ukrainians everything they need to win. Borys does not believe that Trump will want to go down in history as a president who abandoned a country that he had previously helped preserve its freedom. He is convinced that “what the world needs now is a US leader whose willingness to use force and apparent unpredictability is the main factor that will deter the West’s enemies. Johnson’s example confirms that the conservative environment, with its inherent patriotism, is not completely skeptical about Ukraine, and we should work with different circles of Republicans in the United States.
If Trump becomes the owner of the White House again, it could have a significant impact on the course of the Ukrainian war for independence. We have survived six months without American aid, but we had hopes that ammunition and weapons would arrive next month. But we don’t know what will happen if Washington delays the aid for longer. Trump’s unpredictability is our ally, because we are in a position where the current course of our war for independence largely depends on the winner of the US election.
Author: Valeriy Maydanyuk
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